September 2026: Prices Hold Steady as Rates Test Buyers
Greater Houston cooled a little in September, and that is worth a calm, clear look rather than a headline reaction. Single-family sales slipped from a year ago, homes took a couple of extra days to sell, and buyers had more to choose from. Through all of that, prices barely moved. For those of us who own or are building a rental portfolio, that combination tells a steady story: values are holding, and the opportunities are shifting toward patient, well-prepared buyers.
The Sales Picture at a Glance
HAR's September report shows a market that is moving at a more measured pace. The average price actually ticked up slightly, while the median held within a thousand dollars of last year. Inventory continued to build, and pending sales, our best early signal for the months ahead, fell by double digits.
| Single-Family Homes | Sept 2025 | Sept 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homes sold | 7,453 | 7,030 | −5.7% |
| Median price | $325,990 | $325,000 | −0.3% |
| Average price | $418,256 | $421,311 | +0.7% |
| Active listings | 37,821 | 40,192 | +6.3% |
| Months of inventory | 5.1 | 5.5 | +0.4 |
| Average days on market | 56 | 58 | +2 days |
| Pending sales | 7,676 | 6,789 | −11.6% |
Across all property types, Houston recorded 8,181 sales, down 6.4%, with total dollar volume of $3.45 billion, down 2.1%. Existing single-family homes held even with last year at 5,062 closings and the same $325,000 median.
Where the Activity Is by Price Range
Most of the market's weight sits between $250,000 and $499,999, and that band followed the overall trend. The $500,000 to $999,999 range was the one middle segment that held its ground.
| Price Range | Sept 2026 Sales | Year-over-Year |
|---|---|---|
| Under $100,000 | 111 | +3.7% |
| $100,000 – $149,999 | 188 | +5.6% |
| $150,000 – $249,999 | 1,359 | −8.4% |
| $250,000 – $499,999 | 3,878 | −5.7% |
| $500,000 – $999,999 | 1,189 | +0.6% |
| $1 million and above | 304 | −8.2% |
Mortgage Rates: The Real Story This Fall
The biggest change was not price; it was the cost of borrowing. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.86% in September, compared with 6.35% a year earlier, and it climbed through the month from about 6.71% to just over 7%. By the second week of October it had reached 7.40%. On a median-priced home with 20% down, HAR estimates that adds roughly $83 a month in principal and interest compared with last year, before taxes and insurance.
HAR Chair Theresa Hill noted that buyers are responding by slowing down and focusing on what they can comfortably afford over the long term, with steady prices and a wide selection helping keep homeownership within reach.
Townhomes and Condos: A Softer Segment
The attached market felt the rate pressure more. Townhome and condo sales fell 21.0% to 323 units, the median price dropped 9.1% to $209,000, and the average slipped 4.6% to $261,052. Inventory stretched from 8.0 to 9.3 months, with 3,609 active listings. This is clearly a buyer's segment right now, though HOA dues, insurance, and reserves deserve extra attention before any purchase.
The Rental Market: Demand Stays Strong
HAR's September rental report, released October 21, is the part of this month's data I would underline for my investor clients. As higher rates keep some would-be buyers on the sidelines, leasing has stayed active and rents have held.
| Rentals | Sept 2025 | Sept 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single-family homes leased | 3,645 | 3,761 | +3.2% |
| Single-family average lease | $2,346 | $2,333 | −0.6% |
| Single-family median lease | $2,180 | $2,150 | −1.4% |
| Single-family new lease listings | 6,877 | 6,878 | Flat |
| Townhome/condo leases | 525 | 663 | +26.3% |
| Townhome/condo average lease | $1,892 | $1,958 | +3.5% |
| Townhome/condo median lease | $1,700 | $1,800 | +5.9% |
| Townhome/condo new lease listings | 1,137 | 1,192 | +4.8% |
| Townhome/condo active lease listings | 2,257 | 2,456 | +8.8% |
| Townhome/condo days to lease | 44 | 48 | +4 days |
The HAR Chair observed that renting remains an appealing choice for people still deciding whether to buy, since it offers flexibility while rates are elevated. For landlords, that translates into a healthy pool of qualified tenants.
What This Means for You
Your equity is holding.
Prices are essentially flat year over year. If you own rental property in Greater Houston, September offers no sign of the kind of value erosion that would call for a rushed decision. Steady is good news.
Buyers have room to negotiate.
With 5.5 months of supply and homes averaging 58 days on market, listings that have been sitting are worth a closer look. Seller-paid closing costs or a rate buydown can often do more for your returns than a lower price alone.
Underwrite at today's rates, not last spring's.
With rates moving above 7% into October, every acquisition should pencil at current financing costs with a sensible cushion. A deal that only works if rates fall is a deal to pass on.
Rental demand supports occupancy.
More leases signed and stable rents point to dependable demand. Rents are not rising, though, so pricing a vacancy right and preparing it well matters more than pushing for top dollar.
Expect a quieter late fall.
The 11.6% drop in pending sales suggests closings will stay soft into November and December. That season often rewards investors who are ready to act while others wait for January.
Every portfolio responds to these numbers a little differently. If you would like to talk through what September means for your properties, your rents, or your next acquisition, I am always glad to make the time.
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